• Average Slot Machine Odds
• Canadian Slot Machine Odds Slot Machines
• Best Slot Machine Odds
• Canadian Slot Machine Odds Genesis Open
• Best Casino Slot Machine Odds
• Slot Machine Odds Percentage

• Appendices
• Slots Analysis
• Miscellaneous

Introduction

The Math of Casino Slot Machines. For every dollar you wager in a slot machine, you will lose 100% - Payback% of that dollar. For example, you're at Bellagio playing the $1 Double Diamond slot, wagering Two Credits ($2) per spin. According to the table, for every $2 spin you will lose 5.33% of that bet. Just shy of 11¢. In fact, there are over 490,000 slots and gaming machines in Clark County alone (the county where you find Las Vegas). And they’re not just located in casinos. You can find slot machines in the airport, gas stations, and convenience stores. What is hard, though, is finding slot machines with the best payouts. With the help of a pair of university professors, a Canadian casino launched a pilot program placing warning labels on slots. Players appeared to gain a better understanding of how the machines worked and the odds of winning.

When it comes to gambling, the easier a game is to understand the worse the odds usually are. This is certainly the case with slot machines. Playing them is as easy as pressing a button. However, between the high house edge and fast rate of play, there is no quicker way to lose your money in a casino.

Before going further, let me make clear that this page addresses the way slot machines work in most parts of the United States and the world. However, some parts of this page do not apply everywhere. For example, I state that slot machines have a memory-less property, where the odds of every spin are the same. In some places, like the UK, some machines in bars, called 'fruit machines,' have a mechanism that guarantees a certain profit over the short run, which causes the game to go through loose and tight cycles. These games do not have the usual independence property of the major slot makers.

How They Work

Whether you're playing a 3-reel single-line game or a 5-reel 25-line game, the outcome of every bet is ultimately determined by random numbers. The game will choose one random number for each reel, map that number onto a position on the reel, stop the reel in the appointed place, and score whatever the outcome is. In other words, the outcome is predestined the moment you press the button; the rest is just for show. There are no hot and cold cycles; your odds are the same for every spin on a given machine.

Slot machines are just about the only game in the casino where the odds are not quantifiable. In other words, the player doesn't know how the game was designed, so it is difficult to look at an actual game to use as an example. So, to help explain how they work, I created the Atkins Diet slot machine (link). It is a simple, five-reel game with a free spin bonus round, much like IGT's Cleopatra game.

For information on how it works and all the odds, please visit my Atkins Diet par sheet.

For a more complicated example, featuring sticky wilds in the bonus, please try my Vamos a Las Vegas slot machine.

For information on how it works and all the odds, please visit my Vamos a Las Vegas par sheet (PDF).

Odds

The following table shows the casino win for Clark County Nevada (where Las Vegas is) for all slots for calendar year 2012. They define 'slot' as any electronic game, including video poker and video keno. I've found video keno to be about equally as tight as reeled slots, but video poker has a much higher return. So, the return for reeled slots should be higher than these figures.

Clark County Slot Win 2012

Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board, Gaming Revenue Report for December 2012 (PDF, see page 6).

Most players play penny video slots. Based on past research, I find the house edge on those to usually be set from 6% to 15%. In general, the nicer the casino, the tighter the slots.

Advice

While there is no skill to playing slots, there is some skill in selecting which machine to play and ways you can maximize your return. What follows is my advice, if you must play slots at all.

• Always use a player card. Slots may be a lousy bet, but the casinos treat slot players very well. A $1 slot player will probably get comped better than a $100 blackjack player. Of course, don't play for the reason of getting comps. You'll give them a lot more than they'll give you.
• The simpler the game, the better the odds. The fancy games with big signs and video screens tend to not pay as well as the simple games. However, slot players always tell me the fancy games are more fun.
• The higher the denomination, the better the odds. For that reason, it is better to play one coin per line on a 5-cent game than five coins per line on a 1-cent game.
• Don't forget to cash out and take your ticket when you leave. It is easy to forget after hitting a jackpot.
• Try to play slowly and as little as possible to get your fix.
• In some games there is a skill feature, like Top Dollar. In such games, advice is usually offered, which you should take.

Myths and Facts

Just about everything that players believe about slots is untrue. Here are the most common myths and facts. As a reminder, this page is based on slot machines commonly found in the United States. Some machines, like 'fruit machines' found in the United Kingdom work differently.

• Myth: Slot machines are programmed to go through a cycle of payoffs. Although the cycle can span thousands of spins, once it reaches the end the outcomes will repeat themselves in exactly the same order as the last cycle.

  Fact: This is not true at all. Every spin is random and independent of all past spins.

• Myth: Slot machines are programmed to pay off a particular percentage of money bet. Thus, after a jackpot is hit the machine will tighten up to get back in balance. On the other hand, when a jackpot has not been hit for a long time it is overdue and more likely to hit.

  Fact: As just mentioned, each spin is independent of all past spins. That means that for a given machine game, the odds are always the same. It makes no difference when the last jackpot was hit or how much the game paid out in the last hour, day, week, or any period of time.

• Myth: Machines pay more if a player card is not used.

  Fact: The mechanism that determines the outcome of each play does not consider whether a card is used or not. The odds are the same with or without one.

• Myth: Using a player card enables the casino to report my winnings to the IRS.

  Fact: That makes no difference. If you win $1,200 or more they will report it either way. If you have a net losing year, which you probably will, at least the casino will have evidence of it. Such annual win/loss statements may be used as evidence to declare offsetting loses to jackpot wins.

• Myth: The slot department can tighten my game with the press of a button remotely. Thus, you better be nice to the staff and tip them well, or they will use a remote control to have the machine take you down in a hurry.

  Fact: There is now some truth to the myth that the odds of a machine can be changed remotely. Such 'server-based slots' are still experimental and in a minority. Even with server-based slots, there are regulations in place to protect the player from the perceived abuses that could accompany them. For example, in Nevada a machine can not be altered remotely unless it has been idle for at least four minutes. Even then, the game will display a notice that it is being serviced during such changes. (source) Meanwhile, for the vast majority of slots, somebody would physically need to open the machine and change a computer chip, known as an EPROM chip, to make any changes.

• Myth: The machines by the doors and heavy traffic flow areas tend to be loose while those hidden in quiet corners tend to be tight.

  Fact: I've studied the relationship between slot placement and return and found no correlation. Every slot director I've asked about this laughs it off as just another player myth.

• Myth: Slots tend to be looser during slow hours on slow days of the week. However, when the casino is busy they tighten them up.

  Fact: Nobody would take the trouble to do this, even if he could. The fact of the matter is the casinos are trying to find a good balance between winning some money while letting the player leave happy. That is best achieved by slots loose enough to give the player a sufficiently long 'time on device,' as they call it in the industry, with a reasonable chance of winning so he will return to the same casino next time. If the slots are too tight, the players will sense it and be unlikely to return.

  The kind of place you're likely to find tight slots are those with a captive audience, like the Las Vegas airport. So, if the slot manager feels that 92% is the right return for a penny game, for example, he is likely to set every penny game all that way, and keep them that way for years.

Play

Reviews

• Dazzle Me (NetEnt)
• Mr. Vegas (Betsoft)
• Sparks (NetEnt)

Internal Links

• Appendix 1 shows the details and analysis of almost 4000 actual spins on a Reno slot machine.
• Appendix 2 shows an example of the virtual reels behind a hypothetical slot machine and how the average return is calculated.
• Appendix 3A: 2003 Las Vegas slot machine rankings.
• Appendix 3B: 2002 Jean/Primm slot machine rankings.
• Appendix 3C: 2002 Tunica slot machine rankings.
• Appendix 3D: 2002 Henderson/Lake Mead slot machine rankings.
• Appendix 3E: 2002 Quarter and dollar returns for Las Vegas slots
• Appendix 4 shows how the return is calculated for my Wizard's Fruit Slot Machine.
• Appendix 5 analysis of the 21 Bell Slot Machine.
• Appendix 6 Analysis of Red, White, & Blue Slot Machine.
• Lock and Roll analysis of the skill-based slot machine found in North Carolina.
• Deconstructing Jackpot Party analysis of the video slot machine.
• Deconstructing Lion's Share analysis of the classic MGM progressive game.
• Deconstructing Cleopatra analysis of the popular IGT game.
• Deconstructing Lionfish analysis of the slot game found on many Game Maker machines.
• Deconstructing Megabucks.
• Deconstructing the Atkins Diet slot machine.
• Deconstructing Lucky Larry's Lobstermania.
• Deconstructing Hexbreaker.
• Deconstructing Blazing Sevens.
• Deconstructing Hot Roll.
• Mystery progressives on Ainsworth slots.
• Mystery progressives on WMS slots.
• Baltimore Sun article, in which I am quoted.
• 100% Rebate on Slot Losses Promotions: When to quit playing when all losses are refunded.

External Links

• For a simplified explanation of slots, please see my companion site Wizard of Vegas
• German translation of this page is available at richtigspielen.com
• Another decent overview of how slots work and some practical advice for playing them is How Slot Machines Work at VegasClick.com.
• PAR Sheets, probabilities, and slot machine play: Implications for problem and non-problem gambling by Kevin A. Harrigan and Mike Dixon, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. This is an outstanding academic paper that details how some popular slot machines were designed.
• PAR Sheets, probabilities, and slot machine play: Implications for problem and non-problem gambling - Academic paper based on the par sheets for some modern slot machines

We often get asked what the chances are of winning the jackpot on a slot machine, the odds of winning a lottery and the odds of winning everything else for that matter. Of course, these things are a little harder to calculate when it comes to sports betting, which is why you are given approximate probabilities by the bookmakers, also known as the odds. Such things are not typically available on slot machines though, nor can they be found on a number of other forms of gambling, such as lotteries.

In this article we’ll try and expose a few of those odds, comparing them to some everyday — and some not so everyday — things, to give you a better idea of your chances and to bring those odds to life.

Lotteries

Average Slot Machine Odds

Obviously, the odds of winning the lottery all depend on which lottery you play. In Canada we love the lottery and Lotto (which uses a 6/49 format), is one of the most popular forms. In fact, wherever you go in the world, lotteries where you choose 6 numbers from 49 are the most popular, so this is a good place to start.

Canadian Slot Machine Odds Slot Machines

You have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning this lottery. Those odds apply to every ticket that you buy, which is to say that you won’t necessarily have a 1 in 7 million chance, or a 2 in 14 million chance just by buying 2 tickets, and so on. These odds are massive, but the reason why so many people play the lottery and ignore these odds, is because they don’t quite understand them.

With that in mind, let’s try and put them into perspective. You are 14 times more likely to catch a flesh eating virus and die, than you are of winning the lottery. You are 250 times more likely to be struck and killed by lightening. Still doesn’t sound too big? Well, look at it this way. Even if the shop is just 10 kilometers away from where you live, you have more chance of dying in a road accident going to buy a lottery ticket than you do of actually winning the lottery.

There is a great example explained by the Canadian Problem Gambling site. It asks you to imagine that a friend gives you a pin and escorts you to a random area of a football pitch. He then releases an ant on that pitch and lets it roam. That ant could be anywhere. If you bend over and put your pin into the ground, then the odds of that pin stabbing the ant are the same as your odds of winning the lottery.

Of the few things less likely than winning the lottery, perhaps the most surprising is that you will die of a dog bite. This seems more possible than it should be, especially considering how many people are bitten and how many people are killed. But we’re talking about dying from a single bite, which is incredibly rare. The odds of this are 20 million to 1, the same odds of you becoming a saint, and twice that of you becoming the president or dying from parts that have fallen off an airplane.

Best Slot Machine Odds

Slot Jackpots

Your odds of winning a jackpot on a slot machine can be considerably smaller than your odds of winning the lottery. They can also be much greater though. In fact, whilst some jackpots offer odds of around 4,000 to 1, others offer odds that are more than double your odds of winning the lottery.

The problem is you’ll never know which machine is offering which odds. The good thing is that, on average, you have the same chance to win a life-changing sum on a slot machine as you do of being injured by a toilet in any given year. It almost makes you want to rush to your bathroom and head-butt the porcelain — if only that was how it worked. Your odds of finding a four-leaf clover on the first attempt are also about the same as your odds of winning an average slot machine jackpot, and before you ask, that four-leaf clover probably won’t decrease those odds.

Bingo

Canadian Slot Machine Odds Genesis Open

Bingo games differ from site to site and night to night. This is very hard to calculate and differs too much for us to even try. However, you can usually calculate simple bingo games (excluding jackpots) based just on the number of players and/or the number of bingo cards. Your odds will increase depending on the number of cards you have,

As an example, if there are 100 players, including you, and they all have 50 tickets, next to your single ticket, then your odds of winning will be around 5000/1. If you all have one ticket, then your odds of winning should be 100/1. These are very small odds, but the prizes usually match those odds. The real targets in a game of bingo are the jackpots, usually awarded after someone scoops a full-house within a limited number of balls.

Best Casino Slot Machine Odds

Jackpots in bingo offer big money and are usually in excess of 1 million to 1. This means that at the very least, you have more chance of winning a bingo jackpot than you do of dying from measles, dying from coming into contact with a hot water tap, dying of food poisoning or spotting a UFO. Of course, if you’re on track to beat odds of millions to one, then the last place you want to be is the bingo hall. In terms of getting a big return for your big odds, you’re much better off on the slot machine or playing the lottery.

Time Limited Offer For Canadian Players -$1200 Free Play-through Bonus (not a typo)

Royal Vegas is going crazy with their promos this month if you are a Canadian based player. They are a serious operator and accept a host of easy deposit options such as eCheck. Quick payouts, and highly recommended.

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